Scenario Planning: Why China plunges its big fund to Indonesia?

According to some news, Jokowi Government (SOE Ministry) borrow big fund from China (China Development Bank) to financing infrastructure and State Owned Enterprise’s projects.

The amount of loan is $20million, the $10 million is aimed to financing 35,000 MW power plant projects and the rest is aimed for 16 infrastructures projects.

The financing from China Banks as consequence will pull in the others China companies to involve in business as partner, vendors (suppliers), or subcontractors. Meanwhile, the quality of China product or services known as second class or not in the best position.

In another factor, its emerge big questions? Why Indonesia did not borrow loan from West countries or Japan? Or from Rich Arabian countries?

As we know, borrowing much money must consider the interest rate. Is the interest rate offered by China Bank lower than Others?

Focal issues:
How Indonesia develop its infrastructures and industry in 15 years? How Indonesia prepare its development in the Global uncertainty?

Range of Time: 15 years (2030)

Finding Driving Forces:
Using PESTLE analysis, etc.

The driving forces:
– China economic growth
– China military power
– China political factors
– Indonesia economic growth
– China product and services quality
– Indonesia human competition index
– China population growth
– Indonesia Population growth
– Etc
Selecting the three of most crucial driving forces as axes matrix:

POSSIBLE SCENARIO 1, 2,3,4
1. Indonesia as developed country with strong relationship with China (both business and military) (Garuda brings Dragon to fly)
2. Indonesia still under developed country as backbone of China. (Garuda brought by Dragon)
3. Indonesia under China’s cooptation in Business (Garuda under Dragon)
4. Indonesia under China cooptation both in Business and politics. (Garuda swirled by Dragon)

So how its impact to us? what should to be prepared? should we learn Mandarin starting from now?? hihi

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