The Scenario Planning “ the open strategy”

Do you know scenario planning (SC)? Its sounds familiar ya? According to the dictionary, the word “scenario” mean narrative plot. Meanwhile planning means preparation program or steps to do in future.

Scenario planning as science or knowledge, actually coming from military strategy. Its develop by US military in 1940’an to anticipate the various condition in the battle.

Furthermore, the usage of scenario planning is expanded to the business worlds. Its developed from 1970 when shell Petroleum use it as their business strategy tool.For those condition, some prominent scholars emerge as scenario planning experts. Some names such as Peter Schwartz, Paul J.H Shoemaker, Gill Ringland, Mat Lindgren,Hans Bandhold, and also Woody Alan, Adam Kahane, and also Thomas J. They immerse to be SC consultant and becoming popular experts on scenario planning worlds.

I am as personally, interest in scenario planning knowledge because its developing our imagination about future condition.

So what are the definition of SC according to the scholar?
Peter Schwartz said “ SC is at tool (for) ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environment in which one’s decision might be play out”. Meanwhile the Gill Ringland said SC as the part of strategic planning which relates to the tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties of the future.

The SC tool is effective to find alternative strategy for long period, however the Projection tool is more effective to be applied in imminent situation. Combining projection and SC tool will guide the company having robust strategy in order avoiding plunge into worst condition.

There are some step to develop scenario planning.
Step 1 is by determined the focal issues which enclose the business.
Step 2 is by analyzing the macro environment by PESTLE Analysis etc
Step 3 is by analyzing the specific industry where the company actively in business.
Step 4 is by analyzing the internal company itself by SWOTH or Risk analysis.
After conducting those steps above, finally we will conclude the driving forces from every aspects as result of those analysis.
Step 5 is selecting the driving force to find the most critical driving forces. From those critical driving forces. The critical driving forces are coming from the most impact and the most uncertain forces that might be happen in the future.

After all of above steps.we can develop the various scenarios. And for the end, we must prepare the strategic implication from each scenario by preparing the strategic option to mitigate all of the scenario consequences.
Below the interest topic of scenarios:
– Scenario Indonesia 2030
– Scenario ASEAN 2030
– Scenario of the world 2050..
– Scenario of Jakarta 2030..
We can develop all of the scenario in this world, including your life scenarios. So lets try to develop our scenario..!!


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